Two Cents on Paetec

August 28, 2008

I got an email from a reader that said, “I’m surprised I haven’t seen the Straight Shooter’s $0.02 on this topic: Who will buy McLeod’s fiber from Paetec?

Here’s my take: What I heard on the conference call is that PAETEC is not selling fiber anymore, so analysts should not rely on said sales going forward.

I think it’s a smart move not enabling competitors.  That said, previous management to Paetec, attempting to avoid bankruptcy, sold fiber on the cheap thus enabling low cost competitors on the same local fiber routes.  I don’t believe Arunas was saying that they will divest and be a non-fiber participant.  If this were the case, in my opinion, Paetec would not have bought McLeod.  I believe Paetec management understands that fiber enables greater margin control/growth and service differentiation.

Paetec hit a bump in the road; they should be running to local fiber, not from it, regardless of the 90-day Wall Street view of matters.  Local fiber creates a sustainable, competitive advantage.

Written by Dave Rusin - Telecom Executive
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Comments

3 Responses to “Two Cents on Paetec”

  1. Brian Scully on August 28th, 2008 1:55 pm

    Dave,

    You are right on point with your remarks regarding Paetec.

    I will tell you, the McLeodUSA fiber is not for sale.

    Arunas knows his business is dead without it.

  2. Peter Radizeski on August 29th, 2008 11:32 am

    Two points: Running a public low-priced T1 CLEC is way different today than in the heyday of private Paetec. (I think Arunas is in over his head; hence the willy-nilly purchases of Allworx and McLeod).

    Do you need fiber? It certainly helps. But it isn’t the same model as a T1 CLEC. And Dave, AFS, has a model that no one else has/follows. Most fiber in the ground is in the same route, conduit or sheath as the next guy (e.g., L3 and XO). So router diversity?

    As I have seen recently trying to win a deal with a newly merged player, most fiber players give it away. Waves now cost the same as OC3 PL on some routes. This is not the way back to profitability for the industry … but then neither is Forbearance.

    Dave, I will give you that maybe the TA96 wasn’t worded right (but then what law is?). It was a major compromise. But the FCC has not exactly helped either. Over stepping bounds. Not looking out for the consumer. I’m not sure anyone in DC has a dictionary or a real handle on language.

    If there is going to be a sunset, it needs to be 3-5 years out and set in stone like the DTV transition. But even then, I don’t see billions in fiber being invested. We’ll just have the same as now and maybe 2 more players. Wall Street doesn’t think that Verizon FiOS will have real ROI. And neither do I if you use real numbers and not some Enron-esque accounting.

    One thing you don’t see is that in many cases Wholesale pricing from the ILEC’s is the same or higher than Retail.

  3. In the Long Run, Optical Will Matter : Telecom Straight Shooter | Telecommunication Industry News Blog on August 29th, 2008 3:43 pm

    [...] We welcome commentary and discussion on issues, and the following post is in response to a comment received on my two cents on PAETEC. [...]

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