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March 9, 2010
I continue to see and read filings with the FCC that propose to keep copper loops alive and make the ILECs cheaply share their fiber—all in an effort to influence future Broadband policy. I have yet to read a filing where the overarching theme is, “What do we need to do for America first?” [...]
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March 4, 2010
So why is Google pretending to be interested in FTTH? Plain and simple—they are going to create data, measure and develop applications so they become an authority and advisor to the government on cyber architecture, applications, security, benefits and open access initiatives (that will ultimately become part of FCC policy). I predict that [...]
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March 2, 2010
Those crazy guys at Google! You have to love them and their fun antics (that keep me entertained). Google begins with the letter “G” just like the government. We have Government General Motors, Government General Electric (who has been behind the scenes sucking up healthcare money with an eye on future nuclear plant [...]
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February 24, 2010
Let me begin by stating this post is a relatively short one. We are halfway through Telecom earnings reporting and I wanted to share a few underlying themes or trends I have heard and identified:
1. Top line growth is struggling, and in some cases, moving backwards except for metro fiber owners. There is lots of [...]
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February 22, 2010
Without further ado, I will now unveil the Consolidation Theory. Again, I must give the disclaimer that this theory is not necessarily my own but one I have heard many times.
If certain companies elect to run a process or auction, expect the Private Equity sector to outbid the strategic buyers for the companies and [...]
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February 19, 2010
A recent change that has been helpful to IBs and PE firms has been the emergence of AboveNet trading in the stock market. AboveNet is a pure play, data IP fiber-optic infrastructure company that is very similar in profile to many of the healthy companies who are alleged targets for consolidation in 2010. [...]
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February 18, 2010
If this round of consolidation occurs, with the last round’s trend of quantity over quality, the remaining companies are healthy and growing quite well (often at double digits). When these companies are approached, the message is simple, “We are healthy, outperforming most public companies organically and have no compelling need to sell unless the right [...]
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February 17, 2010
Today I plan to elaborate on the Metro Connect Conference 2010–the general discussion, meetings and buzz regarding metropolitan fiber infrastructure company consolidation. With my long history in attending and speaking at Metro Connect events over the years, I noticed there were many more investment bankers (IB) and private equity (PE) firms in attendance than [...]
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February 15, 2010
Dave: Do you think that LVLT (Level 3) will ever prosper due to the growth in the use of fiber. Will ownership of the “pipe” put them in a position to increase prices and gain leverage over customers? Your thoughts would be appreciated. Thanks. Richard
Dear Richard:
Thank you for reading and especially for asking [...]
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February 12, 2010
Let’s go beyond the take-or-pay prerogative. Let’s talk about demand—real demand and the timing that will trigger towers to have a need for 100s of megabits (if not gigabits) of bandwidth. I am a student of demand. I like to understand demand, demand drivers, macroeconomic underpinnings, regulatory constraints and timing of events. [...]
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You conveniently forgot the part about fiber not liking water either.