Vindicated Again
March 9, 2010
I continue to see and read filings with the FCC that propose to keep copper loops alive and make the ILECs cheaply share their fiber—all in an effort to influence future Broadband policy. I have yet to read a filing where the overarching theme is, “What do we need to do for America first?” The aforementioned filings are motivated by self-interest, and in my opinion, unpatriotic. Translation: special interest groups and policies are alive and well. The good news is that the FCC is more open about them by releasing all these notices and lawyer prose in response.
You know that I really hate repeating myself but it is time to put copper to bed. Good night, copper!
I say to those of you who freely chose a copper-dependent diet, “Type 2” business model. You did so under your own free will with your eyes wide open. Physics now has you in a tough place.
It’s been 14 years since the Communications Act of 1996, and based upon a report by Vertical Systems Group, I (your favorite fiber bigot) have been vindicated once again.
After 14 years, based upon VSG research, they estimate that 22% of business buildings in America now have fiber—not necessarily two fiber providers for network diversity in an IP world—but 22% nonetheless (after 14 years).
The good news? We are outpacing Europe. Let’s have a party!
Given the last 14 years, it looks like we can reach 40% of buildings with fiber, possibly by 2024. By that time, the 17 or so countries ahead of us will probably have 100 gigabit access working but we’ll still have that copper plant!
It is high time to put a sunset provision on copper loops, special access, T1, DSL, etc. and leave the advancement of networks to open markets. If policy is clarified, private capital will invest in Telecom infrastructure such as fiber which will further enable wireless—and in that order. So long as the drip feeding death of America vis-à-vis copper exists with no clarity of policy, there is little or no incentive for private-only investment. I believe that we should be trying to avoid placing the burden on the taxpayer.
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On a side note, if you caught my recent post about Google entering the Fiber-To-The-Home sector and all the hysteria they are creating, I have coined (and now want to copyright) a new term. It’s called the GLEC and stands for the Google Local Exchange Carrier. If you read my post, this new acronym for our industry makes great sense. Don’t get GLEC’d…
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A lightening-round, quick quiz:
Question: Who is making money on Cloud Computing today?
[Hum Jeopardy theme song for 30 seconds]
Answer: Companies holding seminars and conferences about what they think Cloud Computing is! We have no standards for Cloud Computing except for Larry Ellison (of Oracle fame) claiming that Oracle has been a de facto Cloud Computing provider for twenty years. Cloud Computing … in business cycle terms that you learn at MBA School, we are only at the seminar stage.
Written by Dave Rusin - Telecom Executive
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Um, cloud computing has been around a while. Salesforce, Google, Rackspace, and many managed hosting companies are making money from The Cloud.
RE: Copper
Even the ILEC’s need the copper, Dave. VZ stopped installing FiOS. Probably ran out of money putting fiber in the ground. Unfortunately, the ILEC’s are not maintaining the copper network much any more. Screw those folks still on dial-up – 7% of Americans – and people with POTS service. They should spend more and get a cell phone because, hey, AT&T covers 90%+ of Americans.
You keep harping on copper has to go, but its still the last mile even for ILEC’s. Even for AT&T Uverse.
I get that the CLEC’s have a flawed model of chasing Arbitrage. Have you spoken at COMPTEL? Perhaps you could be the keynote in Dallas.